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Heiko Hebig
Heiko Hebig lives and works in Hamburg, Germany.
While I have been affiliated with various Internet consultancies and software companies, opinion expressed here is strictly private. Questions? Comments? Send me an .
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Home > Weblog Archive > Setting the record straight

Earlier entry:
« The C question
Later entry:
» Selfplugging

Setting the record straight


A friendly reminder to seperate facts from fiction:

  • The CDU/CSU has won.
  • Both the CDU/CSU and the SPD have reached near historic lows.
  • Voters deflecting from CDU to FDP (~ 1.1 million) are not to blame. The combined count of CDU/CSU and FDP votes is what matters. And that's not enough to reach a majority.
  • The reason the election took place was Schröder losing his vote of no confidence.
  • CDU/CSU and FDP will continue to have a clear majority in the Bundesrat.
  • Die Linke/PDS has gained 970,000 votes from the SPD, 290.000 votes from CDU, 240.000 from the Greens and 100.000 from FDP. 430.000 votes were won from voters that did not vote at all in the 2002 election.
  • Die Linke/PDS reached 25.4% in former East Germany.
  • Among unemployed voters, the CDU/CSU received 24% of the vote while Die Linke/PDS received 23%.
Source: ARD / Infratest-dimap

Comments to this weblog entry:

deleting comments?

not a very sporting gent, eh?

What do you mean? I did not delete any comment here.

sorry, its only gone missing then. hmm. I know I posted it - ok. blame haloscan.

Am i able to put it back together? Lets try.

first SPD is the winner, not CDU/CSU, SPD is the strongest party they have 222 seats in the parliament, CDU has 179 and CSU 46. Yes, they are a faction and they mostly vote together, but they are so proud of their distinct history, that this deserves to be pointed out.
and yes it is not the first time that that is the case, but nobody seems to have made a fuss out of it before.
I do think Merkel and the CDU/CSU are the big losers of this election. They came in 10% under promise, lost lots of voters to the FDP and to the Not-voting Party. In fact they lost more votes to them than all the other parties together. here


this is not quite what the machine ate earlier, but close enough.

Can you vote for the CDU in Bavaria? No. Can you vote for the SPD in Bavaria? Yes. Hence you count CDU/CSU as one in federal elections. It's been like this ever since 1949. Which makes CDU/CSU the winner.

Yes, if counted seperately, SPD has the most seats. But what purpose does that serve other than bending the results of yesterday's election?

PeWi: Seems like you want to join former chancelor Schroeder in twisting the truth until it fits your needs. Come on! This is the last thing this country needed. Everybody should stop this crap now and start behaving like grown up people.

the fact that you cannot vote for CDU in Bavaria does not mean that the CDU could not set up in Bavaria as the CSU did in the East with the DSU (remember?)
They are two parties. why else is stoiber always sitting next to Merkel?
Of course they are one Faction, but that is an internal agreement between these two parties. Nothing to do with anybody else. and the only reason they keep this up, is to please the Bavarians. But defacto; look at the Bundeswahlleiter link. CDU got in second. The CSU is the smallest party in the parliament.

the purpose is the opened question as to who is being asked to form a government first. the biggest party in the parliament, or the biggest faction. Now I don;t know the answer to that, I am still looking for the answer, and maybe we will know, when all the knifes are pulled out of the lifeless bodies of former candidates....

The circumstance, that it has always been the case, does not make it right.

Well, what is the grown up solution?
Great Coalition or FDP joining SPD and Greens?
the most unlike event is jamaica, in my humble opinion, even if policy wise, they are quite close, but then policy wise FDP, Greens and SPD are also quite close.

and again it is more an Ego problem, than a policy problem

We will see.

My point is only, to say. CDU/CSU is the big loser in this election. Nobody else. Not Germany, not SPD, Not Green (which remained remarkably stable) not the reforms, just CDU/CSU.

With this result, a great coalition is the only way to go. But it's not going to work with these Egos. The only solution seems to be that both, Schroeder and Merkel resign, making way for people who put the country's interests first. I could easily pick a number of people from both parties who would fit the bill.

so, who blinks first?

one other solution is of course new elections in January...

another 3-4 month of uncertainty, more months in which nothing happens that gets us forward?
President Köhler needs to blink, that's all it takes. He could suggest his own candidate for chancelor.

But who would get the majority in the Bundstag? Surely not Merkel. The probability will be with Schroeder.

if you read my comment above: I'm not talking about those two anymore. They both disqualified themselves. And is there a rule that the chancelor has to be in one of those 2 parties. What if Köhler suggests somebody else? As long as the majority of the parlament can live with this person.

Schröder lost the vote of no confidence. That alone should suggest that he would not gain any majority in the Bundestag. Then his latest remarks clearly disqualify him from further leading this country.

Will Köhler suggest someone else? I guess that depends on if or when the CDU/CSU will give Merkel the boot.

Facing reality - find' ich gut! Thanks for posting some of the facts. Others are equally interesting, e.g. the North-South rift of the Direct Candidate results which reminds me a lot of the U.S. situation. Has it been that clear before, or is it just that I notice?


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